Q1: Does the US taxpayer have a real “national debt”?
A1: No, our “national debt” is a cruel hoax lacking all three of the essential qualities of a real debt.
1. A real debt must be repaid. The “national debt” has never been repaid and will never be repaid.
Yes, Treasuries are redeemed at maturity, but the “national debt” is the total value of outstanding Treasuries (TVOT). In our history, we have rarely had even a modest annual budget surplus. No serious politician today has any plan whatsoever for a budget surplus. The TVOT must grow with the economy. An economy without an adequate supply of risk-free interest-bearing Treasuries is unthinkable!
We leave our grandchildren not debts but assets: infrastructure! Schools, environment, and an energy supply. We must fully employ our unemployed resources as did Lincoln (railways, telegraph, land-grant colleges), “Teddy” Roosevelt (National Parks, Panama Canal), and FDR (TVA, PWA, WPA, CCC, etc.).
2. A real debt must be a significant burden. The “national debt” is not a significant burden on taxpayers.
The Treasury redeems securities by selling securities, which it creates with a few keystrokes. If needed, the Fed can create an artificial shortage by buying securities on the open market with a few keystrokes.
The Treasury auctions bonds only because Congress requires that the proceeds cover the annual budget deficit. This requirement was suspended during World War II (during which the Fed bought Treasuries) (http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/08/mobilization-and-money.html#more-6200) followed by 35 years of strong economic growth without harmful inflation. Thus, “borrowing” to cover the deficit, a relic of the former gold standard regime, was and remains absolutely unnecessary for a prosperous economy.
Under our fiat currency and floating foreign exchange rate regime, which we have had since 1971, budget deficits can again be financed only by keystrokes while balancing full employment against inflation.
Inflation? Deficit spending NEVER causes inflation during a recession. During prosperity, bank lending ALWAYS causes inflation, creating over $30 of credit for every deficit dollar spent. Regulate the banks!
3. A real debt bears a significant interest. The “national debt” bears no significant interest for taxpayers.
Yes, the bond-holders receive interest payments, but the Treasury pays the interest by simply auctioning more bonds, which it creates with a few keystrokes. The bond-buyers pay the interest! Economists recognize this by declaring that our “primary” annual budget deficit does not include debt interest payments because they never consume physical resources and have no economic effect.
Q2. Could people stop buying Treasuries?
A2. Yes, when people no longer want insurance, annuities, pensions, 401(k)s, or other investments.
Q3: Could investors make a run on Treasuries?
A3: Yes, when investors can get risk-free returns from the Wall Street casino or corporate, state, and municipal bonds. Safety is not everything. Safety is the ONLY thing!
Q4: Could investors prefer foreign sovereign bonds?
A4: Yes, indeed! So far, over 60% of the world’s reserve currencies are in dollars and half of all US Treasury bonds are held by foreigners. But that could change if China’s sovereign bonds become safer than ours. And that could happen only if China’s infrastructure (and so its productivity) becomes better than ours. And that could happen only if US voters worry more about our “national debt” / TVOT than they worry about China’s fast-growing infrastructure and our falling bridges and bursting sewers.
Q5: Won’t we need higher tax rates to pay for infrastructure?
A5: Our money tree does not need our taxes for spending. Congress first creates money and spends it. Then, only to avoid inflation, the IRS repossesses and destroys almost all the money. (Cash payments are shredded!) Think about it: where and how did the first tax payer get money for the first tax payment?
Every federal dollar that is spent and not repossessed by the IRS is saved by the private sector. Our annual budget deficit is exactly equal to the annual private sector savings increase. Yes, DEFICITS = SAVINGS! No deficits, no savings! Our so-called “national debt” is really our Total Private Sector Savings (TPSS). The scary “Debt Clock” is really the “Savings Clock”! The “national debt” scare is a corrupt fraud!
Since bank loans must be repaid with interest, budget deficits are the ONLY source of private sector savings. We need to DOUBLE our “national debt” / TVOT / TPPS / Investment to guarantee prosperity! Our ratio of “national debt” plus total bank deposits to GDP is less than half of the comparable figure for China. Our M2 (money supply) / GDP ratio is half of Switzerland’s ratio and one quarter of Hongkong’s.