Honestly, I think anything could happen. It all depends on what happens between now and November. There's still plenty of electoral votes up for grabs (ie Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, maybe even Michigan) Enough to decide the election. I think that whoever wins, its going to come down to one state.
One advantage Romney has is fundraising. After the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare the Romney campaign raises millions in a matter of days. Plenty of Americans are furious over the ruling, and this election could very well be a referendum on Obamacare. Also, Obama's "you didn't build that" comments are sure to get plenty of furious small business owners and entrepreneurs out to the voting booth. And the fact that Obama has spent more than Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush Jr. COMBINED when we're on the verge of being crushed in debt surely doesn't help Obama's case.
Romney needs to perform well in the 3 debates. And he needs to be more specific on his message. Whenever I hear him say "Well, uh, we're gonna cut taxes... And cut spending, we need to do that too..." I literally yell at the TV. WHAT IS HE GOING TO CUT? He needs to seriously get his act together if he wants to appeal to the independent voters, instead of acting like a classic politician.