Why do IDIOTS think Hillary's winning in the polls when the most accurate poll has trump winning by one point?

Question

The IBD/TIPP poll has trump ahead by one point. It is also regarded as one of the most accurate polls. So, how can Hillary be winning in the polls when the most accurate one has trump ahead?? The better the accuracy, the better the chances. Trump wins. Hillary might as well just throw in the towel ?

Answer 1

Exactly. I don't care what a bunch of amateur polls say. I want to know the accuracy of one candidate getting elected over the other. It doesn't matter how many bad polls are saying trump will lose. If one of the most accurate polls has him ahead, then he's likely ahead.

Answer 2

Erm... maybe because every single other poll has her ahead? If one poll shows a different outcome than the remaining, it can likely be because of the 5% chance that it's completely wrong. Remember: in statistics, the margin of error has a 5% chance of being completely wrong, and the real statistic falls outside of the margin of error. You do know about basic statistics, right? 5% of all polls conducted(if they're conducted properly) will be completely wrong, and it's possible this one is completely wrong. It's less likely that all the ones that have Hillary between 4-8% points ahead(which is almost all of them) are wrong.



But yeah, that's literally the only recent poll that has him up:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Answer 3

Did you bother reading the WHOLE article? (the same poll also says, that one-on-one (Hillary vs Trump) is ahead by 4 points.)



+/- 3.6% for a 95% confidence interval suggests that the data is not so clear cut as either of them leading, and it does include the minor (no chance in h...) runners who traditionally, in polls, take away from the LEADING candidate (Hillary) when only the two front runners are considered.



More, it does not seem to take into account the electoral college part of the process, which still looks like a landslide for Hillary.



But, good for the Trumpet and the trumpettes -- it makes things look close.

Answer 4

Not idiots but liberal Democrats who report the polls and conduct most of them. Of COURSE, they have her winning. Meanwhile, I've been a Latina AND a Black woman between the ages of 18 and 24 in the last two polls I participated in.

Answer 5

Good thing you post anonymously because you're going to be so disappointed. Poor you. :(