Surpremes to hear Health Care law suit next June: How will decision affect Obama's re-election bid?

Question

http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/legal-challenges/184453-justice-dept-will-ask-supreme-court-to-hear-healthcare-suit

DOJ asks Supreme Court to hear highest profile suit on healthcare reform law

"The Justice Department filed a brief urging the high court to hear the lawsuit filed by 26 state attorneys general and the National Federation of Independent Business, which have also asked for a Supreme Court hearing. If the court takes the case, it will likely rule by June 2012 — just months before the presidential election."

Right in the middle of the Campaign and as of now, the country is split on it.

Court rules Constitutional - Obama's chances?
Court rules Unconstitutional - Obama's chances?

Answer 1

Great question, and a difficult one to answer. There are many things that could affect the impact. There could be some other issue at that time that is so pressing that the health care issue will be secondary. That said, here is my best guess on the 2 scenarios you presented.



If the case is decided in Obama's favor, the law would stand for now. It could still be repealed by our elected officials (Congress and the President), and the law's opponents would certainly double their efforts to get their candidates elected. However, they have for months been telling us the law is unconstitutional, and a ruling by the Supreme Court against them would hurt their crediblity. Also, it would no longer just be enough to criticize Obama. They are going to have offer an alternative program, which will also be open for criticism. If the economy is still struggling, like it is now, there are many Americans who will be faced with loosing their jobs. Most of these will loose their health insurance as well. The GOP will have to tell them why not having affordable health care is a good thing. So I think on the balance, such a ruling will help Obama.



If the court strikes down the law, Obama will appear very ineffective. He will have spent his whole first term fighting for something that turned out to be a waste of time. He will probably be hurt by the ruling.



Things could still go either way for both scenarios. Much will depend on which side controls the narrative.

Answer 2

Really? Looking at the poll numbers, either way, Obama's chances are very slim. VERY

Answer 3

hes got my vote.