Do you agree that Obama will win easily in 2012?

Question

Here's why:


1. Historical odds: In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one term. Based on these historical odds, Obama has a better than 67% chance of winning reelection


2. Money: according to Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, President Obama’s 2012 reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion


3. Experience: In 2008, the junior senator from Illinois assembled a team of outsiders that defeated the Clinton machine and won the presidency with 365 electoral votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173. With the same Chicago campaign team in place, Obama will benefit from experience and memory; mistakes won’t be repeated.


4. Obama's charm: Obama knows how to turn it on and win crowds with his oratory. He is personally likable, has an attractive family, and his favorables are climbing. Obama's approval rating is above 50% even according to Fox News, better than Reagan or Clinton at the same point.


5. Economy is improving: As the economy goes, so goes Obama's reelection prospects. And what is most important is not what voters think about the economy at this hour, but rather whether they think it is improving. The stock market is rising, and unemployment is trending downward, albeit too slowly, and consumer spending is up.


6. Obama the moderate: 40% of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 % of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force


7. GOP candidates: With no obvious frontrunner at this point, the Republican primary season may drag on and could be very messy. Tea Party support may be torn. And while Republicans debate which candidate is more Reaganesque, Obama will stay above the fray, looking presidential. And most of the GOP candidates have 0 chance of winning. Even a guy like Donald Trump was the most popular candidate for a while.



8. Hispanic vote: Obama earned 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008 compared to McCain’s 31 percent. The Five State Voter Project, sponsored by The Hispanic Institute, is under way to increase Hispanic voter participation in five states: New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. Winning all of these states could seal the deal for Obama


9. Big corporations should be in Obama’s corner: After all, he’s bailed out the auto industry, delivered guaranteed customers to health insurers, and kept his hands off their subsidies


10. No one seems willing to challenge Obama in a primary. And to find an incumbent who has lost without a major primary challenge you have to go back to Herbert Hoover in 1932.

Answer 1

No. He has proven to be adroit on the campaign trail but an abysmal failure when actually doing his job. His ego is too big.

Answer 2

The next Presidential race is going to be about the economy. By that time Obama will have had four years and of course he'll use the excuse that it's worse than they thought which in truth he made it worse. If inflation keeps creeping up, if we have a double dip recession, if the housing market crashes again, unemployment is still high or if gas prices are still high, Obama is toast. If everything is kosher he'll be re-elected by the same sheeple who voted for him last time.



By the way, nice copy paste job. Learn to think for yourself.

Answer 3

Only if the people of America go for another rigged election through G. Sours and Acorn voting 10 times each.

Answer 4

People or fed up with him and have seen the light, so he will be flushed. People that voted for him don't like being lied to, and wouldn't vote for him if he was the only one running. Most of the people of the U.S.A are a proud people and wont let him destroy any more of this country's prod heritage. Many of us are lining up to give him the boot.

Answer 5

NO.

Answer 6

If you consider early retirement winning...yes.

Answer 7

No, Obama is not going to win FL, NC, VA, or IN again.

Answer 8

If economic conditions remain the same, chances are Obama will lose.

Answer 9

Obama has made a fool out of himself, he will not win in 2012.

Answer 10

LOL...no

Answer 11

Some valid points there and I think Obama is definitely the front runner. But there is an eternity until Nov 2012, anything can happen. Obama made his first critical mistake which was his comments about Israel.

I don't think he gets 2/3 of the hispanic vote again. Republicans are making inroads there, especially in Florida.

The GOP have to focus on the economy and the debt, which Obama has no comeback to. He can only go so long in blaming Bush for the economy's ailments.

Answer 12

With the exception of Ronald Reagan, no president has been re-elected with unemployment above 7.3%, and Obama is no Reagan. I know the kid who asked this question is just that, a kid. All his conscious life can be wrapped up in maybe 5 years.



Obama will lose and mightily. America is too good a country, and its people way too smart to put a man child like this buffon in the WH for another 4 years.

Answer 13

No, there are two ways Obama can win and yes he knows both of them

1. Pay Trump to become a Ross Perot and split the Conservative vote as he would run as an independent and allow Obama to walk back into the White House with 40% of the vote , like Clinton did

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992

2. Rig the election like in 2008, with SEIU servicing the voting machines in a lot of states. plus the Black Panthers KNOW they can intimidate the voters and GET AWAY with it NOW, voters riding buses to several polls and voting several times in a single day ( approx., 10 million extra votes) and not to mention his Amnesty plan and another 10 million votes

below is how much the SEIU ( Service Employees International Union) donate to democrat in 2010, they lead the pack

http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/contrib.php?cycle=2010&ind=P

you will notice they have come A LONG WAYS since 2008

http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/contrib.php?ind=P&cycle=2008

it pays to have connections, it seems, they go from donating $2,769,463 in 2008 to a whopping $ 8,842,585 in 2010, do you ever wonder where all that extra stimulus money went, it keeps me up at night****************************************************************************************************************************

Answer 14

Here's why not.



1) Economy.

The US unemployment rate isn't falling. It's been stagnant or increasing for several months now. It's fallen about .5% since it's peak, but most of that drop is from people who have stopped looking for work. In Obama's BEST month of job creation, we managed to break even on the number of jobs required to meet population increase.



2) The novelty is gone.

Obama rode the "wouldn't it be cool to have a black president" sentiment to the White House. That's gone, he's just another candidate this time around. The minority turnout will fall, the "white guilt" vote will be gone.



3) Track Record

Obama will have to spend most of the campaign time defending his past actions. He can't run on an empty, vague platform like "hope and change" again. He'll have to explain over and over and over and over why he couldn't fix the economy. He'll have to explain over and over and over why the budget deficit is so high. He'll have to explain over and over why "Obamacare" is causing such massive increase in health insurance costs.



4) Obama is an extremist

Only 17% of Americans view Obama as a moderate. 28% view him as liberal, and 48% view him as very liberal. He's too far out of touch with mainstream voters.



5) The "decided" vote.

Obama is 10+ points down in the "decided votes" ( strong support/opposition ) category ( 26% to 36% ). To win, a Republican candidate would need to pick up only 33% of the remaining votes. Obama needs 66% of the remaining votes to win. Historically, this vote will split at something close to 50-50 +/- 5%.



6) The "blame bush" mentality

Obama will have to avoid falling back on that again. It hasn't worked for him lately, and it hurts his credibility if he refused to take responsibility. However, if he doesn't fall back on it.. he will have to own up to his failures.

Answer 15

No, I don't agree with that at all. The economy has been destroyed by this loser, we are a laughing stock in the world, our enemies think we are weak, our allies know they have been deserted and have left us, the private sector continues to be under attack, and his unconstitutional health care bill still has 60 - 70 of the country mad. Couple that with the fact that he can't seem to hear us in those big tin ears of his when we say "We don't want to reward lawbreakers who entered the country illegally with citizenship" and when we say "End the ban on American companies having the right to produce our own energy and forget about the silly windmills and stupid solar panels" and I say it will be close.



Put a credible Conservative up against him instead of some type of milktoast RINO and stinkbomba will be beaten in a landslide.

Answer 16

You make some excellent points. My guess is that he will win, but not "easily."



Having lived in Minnesota, I'm familiar with Pawlenty, and I think he has a decent chance. He's youthful, fairly attractive, and a good speaker. He was elected twice in a state that leans Democratic. He took a hard line against raising taxes. (Not a good thing, but it sounds good in speeches.)



Romney also has a chance, particularly if unemployment is still high. People tend to blame the current prez for bad economic news, even if it's not his fault.



Also, there is a segment of the population who will never vote for a black man, no matter what.

Answer 17

No George H. W. Bush's approval rating was like 80% and then it was 12% at time of election. The election is not till next year Obama can do a lot to mess our country up (like he already has).



And just because a lot of those presidents who have been reelected doesn't mean Obama will there all different people.



Plus they only reason the economy isn't getting that much worse is because Obama doesn't have a democratic house to pass stupid new laws.

Answer 18

if unemployment is anywhere near 7 percent... and no major issues/scandals come up... Obama will probably win with a fairly large margin...



if unemployment stays where it is, he still has decent odds, but it will be much closer....



if it is worse than now, it will be hard for him to win

Answer 19

Yes. Unfortunately, there's no GOP candidate without baggage, or one who will drop the extremely conservative social positions. His reelection will make me very depressed.

Answer 20

Noone is voting for Ron Paul

Noone is voting for Pawlenty

Gingrich enticed the pundits sick their frothing masses on to him

Romney is a mormon RINO

Palin and Bachmann would get 20% of the popular vote.



Obama's a shoe-in for 2012, unless he somehow tanks the recovering economy or outlaws apple pie and baseball.

Answer 21

Nope.



Ron Paul 41%

Obama 42%

Independent 11%

Undecided 6%



18 months till election time and Ron Paul is only trailing by 1%? Once more people hear Paul's message that will change. Obama will lose in 2012, sorry to tell you.

Answer 22

I dont think it will be easy. Definitely win though. If we instituted the civics test again, he would definitely win easily.

Answer 23

So far there is no one that can come close to beating Obama.

Answer 24

Obama has no chance of winning.



The nation's debt is going to be the #1 issue, and democrats are on the wrong side. They WILL be blamed for half of the national debt, as they should be. Brace yourself. You're going to lose BIG.



Again.

Answer 25

If by winning you mean FAIL!



Then HELL yeah, YES he CAN win at FAILING!

Answer 26

Yes, I think it's a sure thing. The republicans are messing up so bad.. they are giving him the chance.

Answer 27

Yes.