Since we have a 60% expansion of arctic ice,have computer models for global warming FAILED to predict climate?

Question

i thought the science was "in"...

the U.N. saying we are headed for global cooling?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html


http://www.naturalnews.com/041981_global_warming_computer_models_cooling.html

Answer 1

No.



There are a whole range of climate models being used, and some will give more pessimistic forecasts than others. The one that gave the most dramatic forecast was (understandably) picked up by the press.



There are always going to be variable projections. There are some things that simply can't be predicted but the overwhelming consensus amongst climate scientists throughout the world is that climate change is happening, and that human emissions are a primary driver.



Just to add - the term "global warming" was changed to "climate change" because many people assumed that the whole world would warm up. It's entirely possible for some parts of the world to cool down, even if the global mean surface temperature goes up (e.g. if the gulf stream switches direction or is shut off, the UK could get much colder - even as the rest of the world warms up).

Answer 2

Oh dear, that's not exactly true.



it's a piece written without actual evidence.



here's some science for you !

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

"Monthly averaged ice volume for August 2013 was 5,800 km3. This value is 66% lower than the mean over this period, 76% lower than the maximum in 1979, and 0.8 standard deviations below the 1979-2013 trend. "



Now if you actually READ the DM, it states "Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012", but it doesn't say how thick it is, so the volume is actually DOWN.



Also, a basic understanding of Mathematics is always helpful, for example

If from year I you have a 30% reduction, that takes you to 70% left then you have a 20% reduction on this 70% it leaves you (70-20*70/100)= 56%

NOW lets increase this by 60%

that mean the new are a covered it 56+(56*60/100) = 89% of the original amount !

So, given the years of reduction, this AREA increase means we are still well below the average before global warming.



lastly, a GLOBAL warming, might mean a local freezing, as in the UK ! As we are artificially warm for our position on the globe, due to the mid-atlantic drift.



Have you seen this UN report yet ?

Answer 3

Strangely enough global warming can trigger global cooling. Its finely balanced which will occur



IF the melting of the arctic ice goes too quickly (through global warming) then it could dump loads of fresh water (cos ice and snow are fresh water) into the north atlantic too quickly for the gulf stream to absorb it.

THIS could then cause the gulf stream (the north atlantic "conveyor") to stop

(warm water goes north on the surface of the atlantic from the caribbean. It then gets colder, falls to the bottom of the ocean and flows back to the caribbean, where it gets warmer and rises again, then back north. Hence its like a "conveyor")

Stop the conveyor and the warm water no longer flows north



Since its the gulf stream that keeps the north atlantic warmer than it shoud be, then it will become a LOT colder and would probably lead to an ice age in the northern hemisphere

(this is the basis for the film "day after tomorrow")

Answer 4

once again you only state HALF the story . read the entire article . global warming is increasing at an alarming rate . on 12 21 12 atmospheric CO2 hit 400 ppm * . in all of earths history the highest it ever went before was 363 ppm during the carboniferous period . back then the ice caps melted , the entire earth was tropical and sea levels were a few hundred feet higher . it took 200 million years for the seas to absorb enough for temps to come back down to " normal " . 400 ppm is to much , it is the tipping point . the point of no return . the earth will go into a slow irreversible , permanent greenhouse effect . we turn into venus - 700 degrees F at noon . by 2023 , after 5 years of worldwide crop failures, food will be made from people , by 2033 the seas will have boiled off into space and humanity turns to dust . money won't help . the secret government bunkers won't help . the deniers die too .

Answer 5

Take a course in basic statistics. A peak is almost always followed by a decline and a trough by an upswing. The previous year set a record for decline in Arctic ice. It is no surprise that there was more in the next year. Follow the trend. It is downward for the ice floes.

Answer 6

No

You're just as bad at math as you are at science.



You know why arctic ice was 60% larger than last year?

Simple, last year was a record, all-time low.



60% larger ice pack than the all-time record low?



Is still the sixth lowest ice pack since they've kept records.



This is why the words conservative and science are so maligned.

Answer 7

one year is not Climate and the arctic is not the entire planet. The science is in, this is just plain dumb journalism. It sells papers, not the truth.

Answer 8

Liberals changed global warming to Climate change because they knew this would happen.

Answer 9

Ice expands when warmed due to the liquids. Did you pass basic science?

Answer 10

One year does not a climatological trend make... or break.



Let's compare this year against ten and twenty years ago and see what it looks like, hmmm?

Answer 11

Yep

Answer 12

Libs covered themselves when they changed it to "climate change" and dropped "global warming"